Union St. Gilloise1 - 0Atalanta
Union St. Gilloise2 trades, 50% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Union St. Gilloise hosted Atalanta in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 1-0. Goals: A. Khalaili (70'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$29.23 (ROI: +13.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 17' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 17'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Union St. Gilloise 0 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 3.0%, with a combined stake of $223. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 55.0% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 7.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$29.23.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$29.23 (ROI: +13.1%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 36%–64% in Union St. Gilloise's deficit. Union St. Gilloise had 8 shots (4 on target) versus Atalanta's 13 (2 on target). Expected goals: Union St. Gilloise 1 — Atalanta 0.87. Corners: 0-6.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +13.1% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 27.7% / 26.4% / 48.8% |
| Asian handicap | +0.5 | 53.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 54.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Over/Under 2.75 Goals market significantly misjudged the game flow, heavily favoring "Over" despite a low-scoring 1-0 outcome.
The UEFA Champions League fixture between Union St. Gilloise and Atalanta concluded 1-0, a result that exposed notable market inefficiencies. In the 1x2 market, the home win for Union St. Gilloise had an implied probability of just 27.7%, despite ultimately securing the victory. This indicates a significant undervaluation by the closing line, offering substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) for astute bettors. The Asian Handicap of +0.5 for Union St. Gilloise was correctly priced, with a 53.48% probability of covering, which they did. However, the most glaring market mispricing occurred in the Goals Over/Under market. The closing line of 2.75 saw the "Over" heavily favored with a 54.35% implied probability. With only one goal scored, the "Under 2.75" was the winning outcome, presenting a clear EV+ signal and confirming a strong market inefficiency.
A positive result with +13.1% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$29.23.
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