Tottenham

3 - 2

Atletico Madrid

Tottenham hosted Atletico Madrid in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 3-2. Goals: R. Kolo Muani (30'), J. Alvarez (47'), X. Simons (52'), D. Hancko (75'), X. Simons (90' pen). OddsFlow deployed 19 trades across 6 waves, achieving 63% precision with a net result of +$5404.43 (ROI: +49.1%).

Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atletico Madrid and Atletico Madrid 0. Average expected value was 15.9%, with a combined stake of $2253. The sharpest edge was on Atletico Madrid 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 73.4% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 23.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2253.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 30' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Tottenham leading 1-0 at 30'. R. Kolo Muani scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Tottenham and Over 2.5 and Atletico Madrid -1 and Atletico Madrid -0.5. Average expected value was 27.6%, with a combined stake of $3989. The sharpest edge was on Atletico Madrid -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 94.8% probability versus the market's implied 53.3% — a 41.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.875. **Result:** All 7 trades won, netting +$5052.88. ### Wave 3 — Minute 38' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Tottenham leading 1-0 at 38'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atletico Madrid 0 and Atletico Madrid -1. Average expected value was 38.7%, with a combined stake of $1733. The sharpest edge was on Atletico Madrid -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 95.2% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 43.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$859.75. ### Wave 4 — Minute 44' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Tottenham leading 1-0 at 44'. 2 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atletico Madrid -0.5. Average expected value was 44.9%, with a combined stake of $1028. The sharpest edge was on Atletico Madrid -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.2% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 42.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1644.80. ### Wave 5 — Minute 48' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after J. Alvarez's equalizer at 47'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 11.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 42.1% probability versus the market's implied 25.0% — a 17.1 percentage point gap at odds of 4. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 53' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Tottenham leading 2-1 at 53'. X. Simons scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 3.5. Average expected value was 24.9%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Over 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 22.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1100.00.

- **Minute 39'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Madrid -1: AI saw 95.2% vs market's 51.3% (43.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Madrid -0.5: AI saw 81.2% vs market's 38.5% (42.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Madrid -0.5: AI saw 81.0% vs market's 38.5% (42.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 31'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Madrid -1: AI saw 94.8% vs market's 53.3% (41.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 31'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Madrid -1: AI saw 94.6% vs market's 53.3% (41.3pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 5W/3L, +$1882.13 (ROI: +43.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 5W/3L, +$1817.75 (ROI: +41.5%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/0L/1V, +$1704.55 (ROI: +75.4%)

Possession was 51%–49% in Tottenham's favor. Tottenham had 15 shots (11 on target) versus Atletico Madrid's 18 (6 on target). Expected goals: Tottenham 2.11 — Atletico Madrid 1.04. Corners: 6-7.