Sporting CP0 - 1Arsenal
Sporting CPWhy did AI enter 4 times at 32', 46', 60', 64' — and still finish $-1442?
Match Overview
Sporting CP hosted Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 0-1. Goals: M. Zubimendi (64'), K. Havertz (90'). OddsFlow deployed 13 trades across 4 waves, achieving 38% precision with a net result of $-1442.00 (ROI: -22.2%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 32' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 32'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Sporting CP and Sporting CP +0.5 and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 10.1%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Sporting CP +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.7% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 12.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-3000.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 46' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 46'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 8.9%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 40.3% probability versus the market's implied 28.6% — a 11.7 percentage point gap at odds of 3.5. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 60' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 60'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$533.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 64' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Arsenal leading 0-1 at 64'. M. Zubimendi scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Sporting CP +1 and Arsenal. Average expected value was 34.1%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Sporting CP +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.0% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 40.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$2025.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 64'** — Asian Handicap Sporting CP +1: AI saw 80.0% vs market's 40.0% (40.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 64'** — Asian Handicap Sporting CP +1: AI saw 79.7% vs market's 40.0% (39.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 32'** — Asian Handicap Sporting CP +0.5: AI saw 66.7% vs market's 54.1% (12.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 32'** — Asian Handicap Sporting CP +0.5: AI saw 65.8% vs market's 54.1% (11.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 46'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 40.3% vs market's 28.6% (11.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/4L, $-458.50 (ROI: -13.1%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/4L, $-983.50 (ROI: -32.8%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 43%–57% in Sporting CP's deficit. Sporting CP had 10 shots (5 on target) versus Arsenal's 7 (4 on target). Expected goals: Sporting CP 0.77 — Arsenal 0.78. Corners: 3-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -22.2% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at $-458.50.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 22.2% / 27.3% / 52.9% |
| Asian handicap | +0.5 | 52.9% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 50.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Under 2.5 Goals Value Signal
In the UEFA Champions League clash between Sporting CP and Arsenal, Arsenal secured a narrow 0-1 victory. The 1x2 market accurately priced Arsenal as the favorite (52.91% implied probability), which materialized. On the Asian Handicap, Arsenal (-0.5) covered the spread, aligning with the market's expectation (52.91% to cover). However, the most significant market inefficiency, or rather a strong value signal, was identified in the Goals Over/Under market. With a closing line of 2.5 goals, the market subtly leaned towards the Under (52.08% probability). The final score of 0-1 (1 total goal) decisively landed the Under, highlighting a strong Closing Line Value (CLV) on the Under 2.5 bet.
A tough session at -22.2% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Active Trader at $-458.50.
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