Real Madrid3 - 0Manchester City
Real MadridWhat went wrong? 2 trades, $-2085 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Real Madrid hosted Manchester City in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 3-0. Goals: F. Valverde (20'), F. Valverde (27'), F. Valverde (42'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-2085.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Real Madrid leading 1-0 at 25'. null scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Manchester City 0. Average expected value was 19.3%, with a combined stake of $2085. The sharpest edge was on Manchester City 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.5% probability versus the market's implied 67.8% — a 15.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.475. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-2085.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Manchester City 0: AI saw 83.5% vs market's 67.8% (15.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Manchester City 0: AI saw 83.7% vs market's 69.0% (14.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-1035.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-1050.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 40%–60% in Real Madrid's deficit. Real Madrid had 12 shots (7 on target) versus Manchester City's 8 (4 on target). Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.59 — Manchester City 0.56. Corners: 1-10.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at $-1035.00.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Active Trader at $-1035.00.
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