PSV Eindhoven1 - 2Bayern München
PSV EindhovenWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-184 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
PSV Eindhoven hosted Bayern München in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 1-2. Goals: Jamal Musiala (58'), I. Saibari (78'), H. Kane (84'). PSV Eindhoven received a red card (Mauro Junior, 90'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-184.12 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting PSV Eindhoven +0.75. Average expected value was 6.6%, with a combined stake of $184. The sharpest edge was on PSV Eindhoven +0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.3% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 6.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-184.12.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-184.12 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 42%–58% in PSV Eindhoven's deficit. PSV Eindhoven had 13 shots (7 on target) versus Bayern München's 16 (7 on target). Expected goals: PSV Eindhoven 0.69 — Bayern München 1.8. Corners: 5-6.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 18.5% / 20.9% / 64.1% |
| Asian handicap | +1 | 53.2% |
| Over / Under | 3.5 | 51.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced the Goals Over/Under 3.5 line, with the Under hitting despite near 50/50 probabilities.
The UEFA Champions League clash saw Bayern München secure a 2-1 victory over PSV Eindhoven. The 1x2 market correctly identified Bayern as the strong favorite, a sentiment validated by the final score. In the Asian Handicap market, Bayern closed as -1 favorite, and the 2-1 result meant a push for both -1 and +1 bettors, indicating relative efficiency for the spread. However, the most notable **market inefficiency** emerged in the **Goals Over/Under (O/U) 3.5** line. Despite the market's near even probabilities on Over/Under, the match finished with only 3 goals, hitting the **Under 3.5**. This represents a clear **EV+ signal** for the OddsFlow model, indicating bookmakers slightly overvalued goal-scoring potential. Profitable bettors would have found significant **closing line value** on the Under.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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