Paris Saint Germain1 - 1Newcastle
Paris Saint GermainWhy did AI enter 2 times at 69', 79' — and still finish +$25?
Match Overview
Paris Saint Germain hosted Newcastle in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 1-1. Goals: Vitinha (8'), Joe Willock (45'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 2 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of +$25.00 (ROI: +6.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 69' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 69'. Newcastle made 3 substitutions. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Paris Saint Germain +1 and Over 3.5. Average expected value was 4.8%, with a combined stake of $300. The sharpest edge was on Paris Saint Germain +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.1% probability versus the market's implied 53.3% — a 7.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.875. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$75.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 79' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 79'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 2.1%, with a combined stake of $100. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-50.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 1W/1L/1V, +$25.00 (ROI: +6.3%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 67%–33% in Paris Saint Germain's favor. Paris Saint Germain had 22 shots (7 on target) versus Newcastle's 10 (4 on target). Expected goals: Paris Saint Germain 2.48 — Newcastle 1. Corners: 5-1.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +6.3% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 62.5% / 20.9% / 20.2% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 50.8% |
| Over / Under | 3.5 | 51.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market heavily underestimated the probability of a draw.
In the UEFA Champions League clash between Paris Saint Germain and Newcastle, which concluded in a 1-1 draw, the market significantly mispriced the probability of a stalemate. The 1x2 market heavily favored PSG at 62.5% for a home win, while the draw probability was underestimated at just 20.88%. This presented a clear EV+ signal for the draw. On the Asian Handicap line of -1, PSG failed to cover, aligning with the tight pre-match probabilities. Furthermore, the Over/Under 3.5 goals market, which slightly leaned towards the Over at 51.55%, ultimately saw only two goals, making the Under a value signal for astute bettors.
A positive result with +6.3% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$25.00.
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