Paris Saint Germain2 - 2Monaco
Paris Saint GermainWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-1874 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Paris Saint Germain hosted Monaco in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 2-2. Goals: M. Akliouche (45'), Marquinhos (60'), K. Kvaratskhelia (66'), J. Teze (90'). Monaco received a red card (M. Coulibaly, 58'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-1874.36 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 59' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Monaco leading 0-1 at 59'. Monaco down to 10 men (M. Coulibaly red card 59'). 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Paris Saint Germain. Average expected value was 18.7%, with a combined stake of $1874. The sharpest edge was on Paris Saint Germain (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 52.8% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 8.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-1874.36.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-1874.36 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 73%–27% in Paris Saint Germain's favor. Paris Saint Germain had 21 shots (6 on target) versus Monaco's 9 (4 on target). Expected goals: Paris Saint Germain 2.13 — Monaco 0.86. Corners: 8-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 78.1% / 15.4% / 11.0% |
| Asian handicap | -1.75 | 52.4% |
| Over / Under | 3.5 | 52.6% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The draw was significantly undervalued by bookmakers.
The UEFA Champions League clash between Paris Saint Germain and Monaco culminated in an unexpected 2-2 draw. The 1x2 market significantly favored PSG for a home win with an implied probability of 78.13%. However, the actual draw outcome, priced at a mere 15.36% implied probability, represents a substantial market inefficiency. In the Handicap market, PSG was set at -1.75, with a 52.36% probability of covering. The 2-2 result meant Monaco easily covered their +1.75 handicap, indicating a clear value signal on the underdog. Conversely, the Over/Under 3.5 Goals market, with a slight lean towards Over (52.63%), proved relatively efficient as 4 goals were scored. The most pronounced inefficiency was the undervaluation of the draw.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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