Paris Saint Germain2 - 0Liverpool
Paris Saint GermainWhat the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 55.3% / 22.8% / 25.1% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 49.0% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 52.6% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overvalued the Over 3.0 goals line.
The UEFA Champions League fixture between Paris Saint Germain and Liverpool concluded with a 2-0 victory for PSG. The 1x2 market correctly priced PSG as the market favorite with a 55.25% implied win probability. In the Asian Handicap market, PSG (-0.75) had a 49.02% chance of covering, while Liverpool (+0.75) was slightly favored to cover with a 52.91% probability. PSG’s dominant 2-0 win meant they comfortably covered their -0.75 handicap, indicating a clear market inefficiency where the favored outcome by the market did not materialize. However, the most notable error was in the Totals (Over/Under) market. The closing line for total goals was set at 3, with the market heavily leaning towards the Over 3.0 goals (52.63% implied probability). The match ultimately produced only 2 goals, resulting in the Under 3.0 hitting, providing significant Closing Line Value (CLV) for bettors who faded the market consensus.
No entry signals — model found no valuable odds
Our AI analyzed Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets in real-time but did not detect sufficient edge.
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