Paris Saint Germain

5 - 2

Chelsea

Paris Saint Germain hosted Chelsea in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 5-2. Goals: B. Barcola (10'), M. Gusto (28'), O. Dembele (40'), E. Fernandez (57'), Vitinha (74'), K. Kvaratskhelia (86'), K. Kvaratskhelia (90'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 6 waves, achieving 43% precision with a net result of $-944.60 (ROI: -10.7%).

Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Paris Saint Germain leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Paris Saint Germain and Chelsea -1. Average expected value was 25.9%, with a combined stake of $3795. The sharpest edge was on Chelsea -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 73.8% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 29.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting $-244.60. ### Wave 2 — Minute 28' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after M. Gusto's equalizer at 28'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Paris Saint Germain -0.5. Average expected value was 11.8%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Paris Saint Germain -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.4% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 10.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1000.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 32' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after M. Gusto's equalizer at 28'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Chelsea 0. Average expected value was 9.4%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Chelsea 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 42.3% probability versus the market's implied 35.1% — a 7.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.85. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 40' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Paris Saint Germain leading 2-1 at 40'. O. Dembele scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Chelsea 0. Average expected value was 17.4%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Chelsea 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 53.6% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 15.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 58' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2 after E. Fernandez's equalizer at 57'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 4.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 19.6%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Over 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 26.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$300.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 75' (Score: 3-2) **Context:** Paris Saint Germain leading 3-2 at 75'. Vitinha scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Chelsea -0.5. Average expected value was 53.9%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Chelsea -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.1% probability versus the market's implied 24.4% — a 52.7 percentage point gap at odds of 4.1. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00.

- **Minute 75'** — Asian Handicap Chelsea -0.5: AI saw 77.1% vs market's 24.4% (52.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 75'** — Asian Handicap Chelsea -0.5: AI saw 76.7% vs market's 24.4% (52.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Chelsea -1: AI saw 73.8% vs market's 44.4% (29.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Chelsea -1: AI saw 73.0% vs market's 44.4% (28.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 58'** — Over/Under Over 4.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 43.5% (26.5pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/4L, $-404.40 (ROI: -8.8%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/4L, $-540.20 (ROI: -12.9%)

Possession was 58%–42% in Paris Saint Germain's favor. Paris Saint Germain had 8 shots (7 on target) versus Chelsea's 9 (4 on target). Expected goals: Paris Saint Germain 0.67 — Chelsea 1.53. Corners: 2-3.