Paris Saint Germain5 - 4Bayern München
Paris Saint GermainWhy did AI enter 6 times at 15', 25', 30', 46', 51', 71' — and still finish +$4238?
Match Overview
Paris Saint Germain hosted Bayern München in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 5-4. Goals: H. Kane (17' pen), K. Kvaratskhelia (24'), J. Neves (33'), M. Olise (41'), O. Dembele (45' pen), K. Kvaratskhelia (56'), O. Dembele (58'), D. Upamecano (65'), L. Diaz (68'). OddsFlow deployed 31 trades across 6 waves, achieving 61% precision with a net result of +$4237.97 (ROI: +26.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to 0; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.5 to 3.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.24 to 2.55.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Paris Saint Germain -0.5. Average expected value was 5.4%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$300.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Bayern München leading 0-1 at 25'. K. Kvaratskhelia scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Bayern München and Paris Saint Germain -0.5 and Bayern München 0 and Over 3.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 16.8%, with a combined stake of $6151. The sharpest edge was on Over 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 78.0% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 34.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 6 of 11 trades won, netting +$1365.36. ### Wave 3 — Minute 30' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after K. Kvaratskhelia's equalizer at 24'. 1 model (system_S5_live) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bayern München 0. Average expected value was 11.9%, with a combined stake of $226. The sharpest edge was on Bayern München 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.6% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 9.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-226.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 46' (Score: 3-2) **Context:** Paris Saint Germain leading 3-2 at 46'. O. Dembele scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 7.5. Average expected value was 7.6%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 51' (Score: 3-2) **Context:** Paris Saint Germain leading 3-2 at 51'. 4 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system_S5_live, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 6.5 and Bayern München -0.5 and Paris Saint Germain and Bayern München -1. Average expected value was 21.3%, with a combined stake of $6940. The sharpest edge was on Bayern München -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 91.3% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 35.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** 9 of 13 trades won, netting +$2878.15. ### Wave 6 — Minute 71' (Score: 5-4) **Context:** Paris Saint Germain leading 5-4 at 71'. L. Diaz scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 10.5. Average expected value was 20.5%, with a combined stake of $1612. The sharpest edge was on Under 10.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 81.1% probability versus the market's implied 63.7% — a 17.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.571. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$920.45.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Bayern München -1: AI saw 91.3% vs market's 56.3% (35.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Bayern München -1: AI saw 91.1% vs market's 56.3% (34.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Bayern München -1: AI saw 91.0% vs market's 56.3% (34.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Over 3.5: AI saw 78.0% vs market's 43.5% (34.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 26'** — Over/Under Over 3.5: AI saw 77.0% vs market's 45.5% (31.6pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 11 trades, 7W/4L, +$1761.21 (ROI: +28.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 11 trades, 7W/4L, +$1691.19 (ROI: +27.9%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$911.57 (ROI: +27.2%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$300.00 (ROI: +150.0%) - **system_S5_live**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-426.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Paris Saint Germain had 12 shots (5 on target) versus Bayern München's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +26.3% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$1761.21.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 39.2% / 25.0% / 38.6% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 51.5% |
| Over / Under | 3.25 | 52.6% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Significant Value on Over 3.25 Goals
The UEFA Champions League clash between Paris Saint Germain and Bayern München concluded in a thrilling 5-4 victory for PSG. The 1x2 market identified PSG as the slight favorite with a 39.22% implied win probability, which proved accurate. In the Handicap market, PSG also covered the 0 line with their 5-4 win, aligning with the 51.55% probability for the home side to cover. However, the most significant market inefficiency was evident in the Totals (Over/Under) market. The closing line of 3.25 goals, with only a 52.63% probability for the Over, was a clear misjudgment. With a staggering 9 goals scored, the 'Over' outcome represented significant Closing Line Value (CLV), indicating a strong EV+ opportunity missed by the market.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +26.3% ROI on 31 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$1761.21.
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