Paris Saint Germain1 - 1Arsenal
Paris Saint GermainWhy did AI enter 2 times at 0', 10' — and still finish $-19?
Match Overview
Paris Saint Germain hosted Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 1-1. Goals: K. Havertz (6'), O. Dembele (65' pen), G. Ramos (120' pen), V. Gyokeres (120' pen), D. Doue (120' pen), D. Rice (120' pen), A. Hakimi (120' pen), G. Martinelli (120' pen), L. Beraldo (120' pen). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 2 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of $-19.25 (ROI: -64.2%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.93 to 2.1; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.25 to 2.46.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Paris Saint Germain. Average expected value was 11.8%, with a combined stake of $25. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-25.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Arsenal leading 0-1 at 10'. K. Havertz scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Paris Saint Germain +0.5. Average expected value was 39.0%, with a combined stake of $5. The sharpest edge was on Paris Saint Germain +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.8% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 36.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$5.75.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Paris Saint Germain +0.5: AI saw 82.8% vs market's 46.5% (36.3pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$5.75 (ROI: +115.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-25.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 75–25 in Paris Saint Germain's favor. Paris Saint Germain had 21 shots (4 on target) versus Arsenal's 7 (1 on target). Expected goals: Paris Saint Germain 1.77 — Arsenal 0.44. Corners: 11-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -64.2% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$5.75.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 40.6% / 29.6% / 31.9% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 54.4% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 52.6% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Significant market error on Total Goals, Under 2.25 was value.
The UEFA Champions League clash between Paris Saint Germain and Arsenal ended in a 1-1 draw. The 1x2 market showed a slight market inefficiency, as the draw, priced at an implied probability of 29.59%, materialized against the favorite Paris Saint Germain (40.65%). On the Asian Handicap, Arsenal +0.25 was heavily favored to cover at 54.35% probability, which proved to be a correct read as the draw ensured a half-win on the +0.25 line for Arsenal backers. However, the most significant market mispricing was identified in the Totals market. With a closing line of 2.25 goals, the market strongly leaned towards the Over (52.63% implied probability). The final score of 1-1, resulting in a total of 2 goals, meant the Under 2.25 was the correct side (half win), indicating a clear value signal for Under bettors against the prevailing market sentiment.
A tough session at -64.2% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$5.75.
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