Pafos4 - 1Slavia Praha
PafosWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-139 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Pafos hosted Slavia Praha in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 4-1. Goals: Vlad Dragomir (17'), Štěpán Chaloupek (44'), Bruno (53'), Anderson Silva (84'), Anderson Silva (87'). Slavia Praha received a red card (Jan Bořil, 59'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-139.24 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Pafos leading 1-0 at 25'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Slavia Praha +0.5. Average expected value was 5.1%, with a combined stake of $139. The sharpest edge was on Slavia Praha +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 57.1% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 5.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-139.24.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-139.24 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 45%–55% in Pafos's deficit. Pafos had 16 shots (8 on target) versus Slavia Praha's 11 (3 on target). Expected goals: Pafos 1.39 — Slavia Praha 1.42. Corners: 7-1.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 32.3% / 27.5% / 43.1% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 52.6% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 54.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market significantly underestimated Pafos's win probability.
Pafos secured a decisive 4-1 victory against Slavia Praha in the UEFA Champions League, delivering a significant market inefficiency. The 1x2 market heavily favored Slavia Praha with a 43.1% implied win probability, while Pafos was priced as the underdog at 32.26%. This outcome represents substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) on Pafos, as they not only won but dominated. The Asian Handicap of Pafos +0.25, with a 52.63% probability to cover, proved to be an accurate market lean, although the actual winning margin of 3 goals far exceeded expectations. Furthermore, the Goals Over/Under market set at 2.75 with an 'Over' probability of 54.05% correctly anticipated a higher-scoring affair, but the total of 5 goals highlights an even stronger 'Over' signal than implied, indicating EV+ on the Over.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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