Newcastle

1 - 1

Barcelona

Newcastle hosted Barcelona in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 1-1. Goals: H. Barnes (86'), Lamine Yamal (90' pen). OddsFlow deployed 7 trades across 4 waves, achieving 43% precision with a net result of +$2875.00 (ROI: +70.1%).

Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.

### Wave 1 — Minute 29' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 29'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Barcelona 0. Average expected value was 26.4%, with a combined stake of $1603. The sharpest edge was on Barcelona 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.1% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 24.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 36' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 36'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Barcelona. Average expected value was 8.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Barcelona (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 43.0% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 6.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 39' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 39'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 10.4%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 35.9% probability versus the market's implied 25.0% — a 10.9 percentage point gap at odds of 4. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 45'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 9.3%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 44.6% probability versus the market's implied 33.3% — a 11.3 percentage point gap at odds of 3. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$2375.00.

- **Minute 29'** — Asian Handicap Barcelona 0: AI saw 79.1% vs market's 54.8% (24.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 29'** — Asian Handicap Barcelona 0: AI saw 79.0% vs market's 54.8% (24.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 47'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 44.6% vs market's 33.3% (11.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 39'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 35.9% vs market's 25.0% (10.9pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$2000.00 (ROI: +86.8%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/1L/1V, +$875.00 (ROI: +48.6%)

Possession was 46%–54% in Newcastle's deficit. Newcastle had 16 shots (4 on target) versus Barcelona's 8 (1 on target). Expected goals: Newcastle 1.38 — Barcelona 0.69. Corners: 9-4.