Liverpool0 - 2Paris Saint Germain
LiverpoolWhy did AI enter 3 times at 25', 35', 73' — and still finish +$0?
Match Overview
Liverpool hosted Paris Saint Germain in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 0-2. Goals: O. Dembele (72'), O. Dembele (73'), O. Dembele (90'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 3 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Paris Saint Germain 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 10.5%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Paris Saint Germain 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.9% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 10.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$300.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.8%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 73' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Paris Saint Germain leading 0-1 at 73'. null scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Paris Saint Germain and Liverpool +0.5. Average expected value was 35.5%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Liverpool +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.5% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 44.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$200.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 74'** — Asian Handicap Liverpool +0.5: AI saw 80.5% vs market's 36.4% (44.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 73'** — Moneyline Paris Saint Germain: AI saw 62.5% vs market's 41.7% (20.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Paris Saint Germain 0: AI saw 65.9% vs market's 55.6% (10.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Paris Saint Germain 0: AI saw 65.6% vs market's 55.6% (10.0pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$600.00 (ROI: +40.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-600.00 (ROI: -40.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 52%–48% in Liverpool's favor. Liverpool had 21 shots (5 on target) versus Paris Saint Germain's 11 (5 on target). Expected goals: Liverpool 1.88 — Paris Saint Germain 1.17. Corners: 8-2.
Verdict
A marginally negative session at 0.0% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$600.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 42.2% / 23.8% / 37.0% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 54.4% |
| Over / Under | 3.5 | 48.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market significantly undervalued Paris Saint-Germain's outright win.
Paris Saint-Germain secured a decisive 0-2 away victory against Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League. The 1x2 market displayed a significant inefficiency, pricing Liverpool as the market favorite with a 42.19% implied win probability, while PSG's actual winning probability was only set at 37.04%. This created a clear EV+ opportunity for an away win. On the Asian Handicap (line 0), the market also favored Liverpool to cover at 54.35%, despite PSG's comfortable 2-goal victory. Conversely, the Goals Over/Under market (line 3.5) accurately predicted an "Under" outcome with a 54.05% probability, as the match concluded with only 2 goals.
A marginally negative session at 0.0% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: Active Trader at +$600.00.
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