Liverpool4 - 0Galatasaray
LiverpoolWhy did AI enter 2 times at 30', 37' — and still finish $-1588?
Match Overview
Liverpool hosted Galatasaray in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 4-0. Goals: D. Szoboszlai (25'), H. Ekitike (52'), R. Gravenberch (53'), W. Singo (56' OG), M. Salah (62'). OddsFlow deployed 4 trades across 2 waves, achieving 25% precision with a net result of $-1587.50 (ROI: -66.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 30' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Liverpool leading 1-0 at 30'. null scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Galatasaray -1.5. Average expected value was 21.8%, with a combined stake of $1721. The sharpest edge was on Galatasaray -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.8% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 26.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 1 of 3 trades won, netting $-935.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 37' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Liverpool leading 1-0 at 37'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Galatasaray -1.5. Average expected value was 28.1%, with a combined stake of $652. The sharpest edge was on Galatasaray -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 73.4% probability versus the market's implied 48.2% — a 25.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.075. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-652.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 32'** — Asian Handicap Galatasaray -1.5: AI saw 71.8% vs market's 45.5% (26.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Galatasaray -1.5: AI saw 73.4% vs market's 48.2% (25.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Galatasaray -1.5: AI saw 72.0% vs market's 48.2% (23.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-332.50 (ROI: -29.7%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-603.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-652.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 62%–38% in Liverpool's favor. Liverpool had 30 shots (15 on target) versus Galatasaray's 4 (1 on target). Expected goals: Liverpool 4.9 — Galatasaray 0.18. Corners: 6-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -66.9% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at $-332.50.
A tough session at -66.9% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: HDP Sniper at $-332.50.
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