Lincoln Red Imps FC0 - 0Mjallby AIF
Lincoln Red Imps FCWhat the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 17.4% / 23.1% / 66.7% |
| Asian handicap | +1 | 55.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 59.9% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced the Under 2.5 goals, leaning heavily on the Over despite a 0-0 outcome.
The UEFA Champions League fixture between Lincoln Red Imps FC and Mjallby AIF concluded in an unexpected 0-0 draw. The 1x2 market had priced Mjallby AIF as the clear favorite (66.67% win probability), yet the draw, with an implied probability of 23.09%, ultimately materialized, highlighting an oversight in the favorite's implied dominance. In the Asian Handicap market, Mjallby AIF was expected to cover a -1 line (54.95% probability). However, the goalless draw meant Lincoln Red Imps FC comfortably covered the +1 handicap. The most significant market inefficiency was observed in the Totals market. Despite the closing line suggesting a strong lean towards Over 2.5 goals (59.88% probability), the match saw zero goals. This outcome represents a substantial Value Signal for Under 2.5 goals, as the market sentiment heavily misjudged the potential for a low-scoring affair.
No entry signals — model found no valuable odds
Our AI analyzed Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets in real-time but did not detect sufficient edge.
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