Lech Poznan1 - 4Aarhus
Lech PoznanWhy did AI enter 3 times at 10', 39', 52' — and still finish $-1?
Match Overview
Lech Poznan hosted Aarhus in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 1-4. Goals: T. Bech (32'), T. Bech (54' pen), K. Arnstad (54' pen), K. Arnstad (55' pen), F. Tingager (75'), F. Jagiello (95'), T. Kristjansson (100'), F. Jagiello (120' pen), F. Tingager (120' pen), T. Kristjansson (120' pen), Y. Agnero (120' pen), J. Serra (120' pen), J. Pereira (120' pen). OddsFlow deployed 7 trades across 3 waves, achieving 57% precision with a net result of $-1.14 (ROI: -3.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.95 to 1.98; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.8 to 1.65.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Aarhus -0.5. Average expected value was 16.4%, with a combined stake of $4. The sharpest edge was on Aarhus -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.1% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 13.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$3.80. ### Wave 2 — Minute 39' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Aarhus leading 0-1 at 39'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Aarhus. Average expected value was 12.9%, with a combined stake of $8. The sharpest edge was on Aarhus (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 62.5% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 6.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$6.40. ### Wave 3 — Minute 52' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Aarhus leading 0-1 at 52'. 4 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Aarhus and Lech Poznan +0.5. Average expected value was 27.6%, with a combined stake of $18. The sharpest edge was on Lech Poznan +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.9% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 29.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** 1 of 4 trades won, netting $-11.34.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 54'** — Asian Handicap Lech Poznan +0.5: AI saw 77.9% vs market's 48.8% (29.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 54'** — Asian Handicap Lech Poznan +0.5: AI saw 77.8% vs market's 48.8% (29.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 54'** — Asian Handicap Lech Poznan +0.5: AI saw 77.5% vs market's 48.8% (28.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Aarhus -0.5: AI saw 65.1% vs market's 51.3% (13.8pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$2.66 (ROI: +66.5%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-0.20 (ROI: -2.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-1.80 (ROI: -20.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-1.80 (ROI: -20.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 49–51 in Lech Poznan's deficit. Lech Poznan had 18 shots (9 on target) versus Aarhus's 14 (6 on target). Corners: 14-3.
Verdict
A marginally negative session at -3.8% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$2.66.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 57.1% / 26.3% / 24.4% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 50.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 60.6% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued Aarhus for an away win.
The UEFA Champions League fixture between Lech Poznan and Aarhus concluded with a surprising 0-3 victory for the away side, Aarhus. The 1x2 market displayed a significant inefficiency, heavily favoring Lech Poznan for a home win with a 57.14% implied probability, while Aarhus's win probability was only 24.39%. This massive discrepancy resulted in a clear EV+ signal for the away win. Similarly, the Handicap market, set at -0.75 for Lech Poznan, failed to account for Aarhus's dominance. Lech Poznan was given a 50.51% chance to cover, but Aarhus effortlessly covered the +0.75 handicap by winning with a 3-goal margin, indicating another strong value signal against the market favorite. In contrast, the Totals market (Over/Under 2.5 goals) proved efficient, with the market leaning towards "Over" (60.61% probability) correctly predicting the 3 total goals scored. The most pronounced error was the collective underestimation of Aarhus's capability across the 1x2 and Handicap markets.
A marginally negative session at -3.8% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$2.66.
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