Inter1 - 2Bodo/Glimt
InterWhy did AI enter 2 times at 58', 63' — and still finish $-2033?
Match Overview
Inter hosted Bodo/Glimt in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 1-2. Goals: J. Hauge (58'), H. Evjen (72'), A. Bastoni (76'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-2032.88 (ROI: -91.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 58' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 58'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Inter. Average expected value was 15.3%, with a combined stake of $1533. The sharpest edge was on Inter (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 51.3% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 6.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-1532.88. ### Wave 2 — Minute 63' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Bodo/Glimt leading 0-1 at 63'. J. Hauge scored moments ago. Inter made 4 substitutions. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Inter 0 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 15.6%, with a combined stake of $700. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 52.4% — a 10.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.909. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting $-500.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 65'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 63.0% vs market's 52.4% (10.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/2L/1V, $-2032.88 (ROI: -91.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 70%–30% in Inter's favor. Inter had 29 shots (7 on target) versus Bodo/Glimt's 7 (5 on target). Expected goals: Inter 2.14 — Bodo/Glimt 1.74. Corners: 16-1.
Verdict
A tough session at -91.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 80.0% / 13.9% / 10.3% |
| Asian handicap | -2 | 51.0% |
| Over / Under | 3.75 | 52.9% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Significant mispricing of Bodo/Glimt in the 1x2 market
The UEFA Champions League fixture between Inter and Bodo/Glimt concluded with a stunning 1-2 upset victory for the away side. The 1x2 market significantly mispriced Bodo/Glimt, assigning them a mere 10.26% implied win probability, while Inter was heavily favored at 80%. This represents a clear value signal for the underdog. On the Asian Handicap line of -2 for Inter, the market expected Inter to cover, yet Bodo/Glimt not only covered the spread but secured an outright win, highlighting further market oversight. The Goals Over/Under 3.75 market slightly leaned towards the "Over" with a 52.91% probability, but the match ultimately saw only 3 goals, resulting in an "Under" outcome. The most pronounced market inefficiency was the profound underestimation of Bodo/Glimt's capacity for victory.
A tough session at -91.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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