Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Vikingur Reykjavik
2 - 0
Hapoel Beer ShevaWhat the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 57.8% / 24.4% / 24.4% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 51.3% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 62.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overestimated the total goals, presenting a clear value signal for Under 2.5 goals.
Hapoel Beer Sheva secured a 2-0 victory over Vikingur Reykjavik in the UEFA Champions League. The 1x2 market correctly identified Hapoel Beer Sheva as the favorite with a 57.8% implied win probability, aligning with the actual outcome. In the Handicap market, Hapoel Beer Sheva successfully covered the -0.75 Asian Handicap, a outcome the market slightly favored at 51.28%. However, the most notable market inefficiency was observed in the Totals market. Despite only two goals being scored (resulting in an Under 2.5), the closing line showed a strong market lean towards Over 2.5 goals, with a 62.5% implied probability. This represents significant Closing Line Value (CLV) for bettors who backed the Under, as the market’s expectation was demonstrably misaligned with the match reality.
No entry signals — model found no valuable odds
Our AI analyzed Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets in real-time but did not detect sufficient edge.
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