FK Crvena Zvezda vs Larne
5 - 0
FK Crvena ZvezdaWhat the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 93.5% / 9.1% / 4.3% |
| Asian handicap | -3 | 50.5% |
| Over / Under | 3.5 | 59.9% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated FK Crvena Zvezda's ability to cover the -3 Asian Handicap.
FK Crvena Zvezda secured a dominant 5-0 victory over Larne. The 1x2 market accurately priced FK Crvena Zvezda as overwhelming favorites with a 93.46% win probability, aligning with the outcome. However, the Handicap market presented a clear inefficiency. Despite FK Crvena Zvezda covering the -3 Asian Handicap with ease, the market assigned only a 50.51% probability to this outcome. This suggests the market significantly underestimated the home side's ability to dominate and cover the spread, indicating strong Closing Line Value (CLV) for those backing the favorite on the handicap. The Totals market (Over/Under 3.5 goals) correctly leaned towards the Over with a 59.88% probability, as the match finished with 5 goals, demonstrating efficiency in this segment.
No entry signals — model found no valuable odds
Our AI analyzed Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets in real-time but did not detect sufficient edge.
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