Bodo/Glimt3 - 0Sporting CP
Bodo/GlimtWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 30' — and still finish +$2650?
Match Overview
Bodo/Glimt hosted Sporting CP in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 3-0. Goals: S. Fet (32' pen), O. Blomberg (45'), K. Hogh (71'). OddsFlow deployed 8 trades across 2 waves, achieving 75% precision with a net result of +$2650.00 (ROI: +66.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Bodo/Glimt -0.5 and Over 2.5 and Bodo/Glimt. Average expected value was 21.5%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Bodo/Glimt (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 66.7% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 22.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$3650.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 30' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 30'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Sporting CP -1. Average expected value was 8.8%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Sporting CP -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.2% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 7.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Moneyline Bodo/Glimt: AI saw 66.7% vs market's 44.4% (22.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Bodo/Glimt -0.5: AI saw 66.7% vs market's 45.5% (21.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Bodo/Glimt -0.5: AI saw 66.2% vs market's 45.5% (20.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 61.9% vs market's 45.5% (16.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 61.2% vs market's 45.5% (15.7pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$1325.00 (ROI: +66.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$1325.00 (ROI: +66.3%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 50%–50% in Bodo/Glimt's deficit. Bodo/Glimt had 10 shots (5 on target) versus Sporting CP's 9 (2 on target). Expected goals: Bodo/Glimt 2.44 — Sporting CP 0.51. Corners: 4-5.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +66.3% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$1325.00.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +66.3% ROI on 8 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$1325.00.
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