Bodo/Glimt3 - 1Inter
Bodo/GlimtWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-200 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Bodo/Glimt hosted Inter in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 3-1. Goals: S. Fet (20'), F. Esposito (30'), J. Hauge (61'), K. Hogh (64'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 37' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after F. Esposito's equalizer at 30'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Inter +0.5. Average expected value was 8.4%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Inter +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 8.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 43%–57% in Bodo/Glimt's deficit. Bodo/Glimt had 8 shots (6 on target) versus Inter's 15 (4 on target). Expected goals: Bodo/Glimt 1.17 — Inter 1.35. Corners: 3-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 21.3% / 24.1% / 58.1% |
| Asian handicap | +0.75 | 52.1% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 54.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The severe underestimation of Bodo/Glimt's outright win probability in the 1x2 market.
In the UEFA Champions League clash between Bodo/Glimt and Inter (3-1), the market demonstrated significant inefficiencies. The 1x2 moneyline heavily favored Inter with a 58.14% implied probability, drastically underestimating Bodo/Glimt's eventual home victory (21.32% implied probability). This represented a substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunity on the home side. On the Asian Handicap (-0.75 for Inter), Bodo/Glimt's dominant 3-1 win meant they comfortably covered the positive handicap, while the market leaned slightly towards Inter covering (52.08%). The Totals market (Over/Under 3 goals) was more accurate, with the 'Over' priced at 54.05% implied probability, and the match ending with 4 goals, confirming the market's lean and providing good value for 'Over' bettors.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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