Benfica0 - 1Real Madrid
BenficaWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 49' — and still finish +$883?
Match Overview
Benfica hosted Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 0-1. Goals: Vinicius Junior (50'). Benfica received a red card (J. Mourinho, 86'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 2 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$883.40 (ROI: +115.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Real Madrid. Average expected value was 5.6%, with a combined stake of $563. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$703.40. ### Wave 2 — Minute 49' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 49'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Real Madrid +0.25. Average expected value was 6.8%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Real Madrid +0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.5% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 6.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$180.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$883.40 (ROI: +115.8%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 42%–58% in Benfica's deficit. Benfica had 10 shots (3 on target) versus Real Madrid's 16 (7 on target). Expected goals: Benfica 0.41 — Real Madrid 1.1. Corners: 3-5.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +115.8% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 31.1% / 26.3% / 45.5% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 52.9% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overvalued Over 2.75 goals.
The UEFA Champions League fixture between Benfica and Real Madrid concluded 0-1, a narrow away victory for Real Madrid. The 1x2 market correctly identified Real Madrid as the favorite (45.45% implied probability), aligning with the actual outcome. Similarly, the Asian Handicap market at -0.25 for Real Madrid (51.81% implied probability) proved accurate as Real Madrid covered the spread. However, the most notable market inefficiency was observed in the Totals market. Despite the closing line set at Over/Under 2.75 goals with a clear market lean towards the Over (52.91% implied probability), the match saw only a single goal. This discrepancy highlights a strong value signal on the Under 2.75, where the market significantly mispriced the probability of a low-scoring affair. Bettors backing the Under would have realized significant EV+.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +115.8% ROI on 2 trades.
See AI signals as they happen
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