Benfica4 - 2Real Madrid
BenficaWhy did AI enter 2 times at 15', 45' — and still finish +$272?
Match Overview
Benfica hosted Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 4-2. Goals: Kylian Mbappé (30'), Andreas Schjelderup (36'), Vangelis Pavlidis (45' pen), Andreas Schjelderup (54'), Kylian Mbappé (58'), A. Trubin (90'). Real Madrid received a red card (R. Asencio, 90'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 2 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$271.82 (ROI: +90.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Benfica +0.5. Average expected value was 6.1%, with a combined stake of $153. The sharpest edge was on Benfica +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 56.1% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 6.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$153.25. ### Wave 2 — Minute 45' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Vangelis Pavlidis's equalizer at 45'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Benfica +0.75 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 6.5%, with a combined stake of $147. The sharpest edge was on Benfica +0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.7% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 7.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$118.57.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$271.82 (ROI: +90.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 33%–67% in Benfica's deficit. Benfica had 21 shots (11 on target) versus Real Madrid's 16 (6 on target). Expected goals: Benfica 2.92 — Real Madrid 1.5. Corners: 6-5.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +90.6% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 25.1% / 23.5% / 53.8% |
| Asian handicap | +0.5 | 53.8% |
| Over / Under | 3.25 | 49.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Massive Over Bet Value
Benfica delivered a stunning 4-2 victory against Real Madrid. The 1x2 market significantly mispriced the outcome, giving Real Madrid a 53.76% implied win probability while Benfica triumphed. Similarly, the Asian Handicap (-0.5 for Real Madrid) was a clear miss, as Benfica won by a 2-goal margin, providing substantial Closing Line Value for underdog bettors. The most pronounced inefficiency, however, was in the Totals market. With a closing line of 3.25 goals and a slight market lean to the Under (53.19% implied probability), the actual 6 goals scored resulted in a massive EV+ for Over bettors. This match exemplifies significant market sentiment deviation from actual event probabilities.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +90.6% ROI on 3 trades.
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