Bayern München1 - 1Paris Saint Germain
Bayern MünchenWhy did AI enter 8 times at 0', 15', 25', 38', 47', 54', 61', 65' — and still finish +$3626?
Match Overview
Bayern München hosted Paris Saint Germain in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 1-1. Goals: O. Dembele (3'), H. Kane (90'). OddsFlow deployed 13 trades across 8 waves, achieving 77% precision with a net result of +$3626.40 (ROI: +52.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -1; the Over/Under line shifted from 4 to 4.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Paris Saint Germain. Average expected value was 10.1%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Paris Saint Germain leading 0-1 at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bayern München -0.5. Average expected value was 24.3%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Bayern München -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.2% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 21.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$250.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Paris Saint Germain leading 0-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bayern München 0. Average expected value was 17.7%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Bayern München 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 64.1% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 15.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1037.50. ### Wave 4 — Minute 38' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Paris Saint Germain leading 0-1 at 38'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bayern München +0.5. Average expected value was 28.2%, with a combined stake of $2017. The sharpest edge was on Bayern München +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.8% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 25.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1411.90. ### Wave 5 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Paris Saint Germain leading 0-1 at 47'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Paris Saint Germain. Average expected value was 6.9%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$227.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 54' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Paris Saint Germain leading 0-1 at 54'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Paris Saint Germain. Average expected value was 4.6%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 61' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Paris Saint Germain leading 0-1 at 61'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 8.5%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 56.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 6.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1000.00. ### Wave 8 — Minute 65' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Paris Saint Germain leading 0-1 at 65'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 7.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$400.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 38'** — Asian Handicap Bayern München +0.5: AI saw 83.8% vs market's 58.8% (25.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 38'** — Asian Handicap Bayern München +0.5: AI saw 83.2% vs market's 58.8% (24.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Bayern München -0.5: AI saw 66.2% vs market's 44.4% (21.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Bayern München 0: AI saw 64.1% vs market's 48.8% (15.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Bayern München 0: AI saw 64.1% vs market's 49.4% (14.7pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 4W/1L, +$1590.00 (ROI: +52.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 4W/1L, +$1586.40 (ROI: +52.9%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$650.00 (ROI: +92.9%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 65–35 in Bayern München's favor. Bayern München had 17 shots (5 on target) versus Paris Saint Germain's 15 (7 on target). Expected goals: Bayern München 1.32 — Paris Saint Germain 0.95. Corners: 1-8.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +52.4% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$1590.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 61.7% / 18.0% / 23.7% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 51.3% |
| Over / Under | 4.25 | 48.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued the draw in the 1x2 market.
The UEFA Champions League fixture between Bayern München and Paris Saint Germain concluded in a 1:1 draw. OddsFlow AI's post-match analysis reveals a clear market inefficiency in the 1x2 Moneyline. The market had heavily priced Bayern München as the favorite with a 61.73% implied win probability, while the draw was significantly undervalued at 17.99%. The actual outcome of a draw highlights this mispricing, offering considerable Closing Line Value (CLV) for draw bettors. In the Asian Handicap market, Bayern was set at -1 (51.28% to cover), but the 1:1 score meant PSG (+1) covered, indicating a slight overestimation of Bayern's dominance. Conversely, the Goals Over/Under market correctly leaned towards Under 4.25 goals with 53.76% probability, and the total of 2 goals validated this sentiment. The primary market error was the underestimation of a stalemate.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +52.4% ROI on 13 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$1590.00.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.