Bayer Leverkusen0 - 0Olympiakos Piraeus
Bayer LeverkusenWhy did AI enter 2 times at 15', 37' — and still finish $-748?
Match Overview
Bayer Leverkusen hosted Olympiakos Piraeus in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 0-0. OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-747.64 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bayer Leverkusen -0.5. Average expected value was 0.5%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 37' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 37'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Bayer Leverkusen. Average expected value was 5.3%, with a combined stake of $548. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-547.64.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-747.64 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 47%–53% in Bayer Leverkusen's deficit. Bayer Leverkusen had 7 shots (1 on target) versus Olympiakos Piraeus's 6 (1 on target). Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 0.33 — Olympiakos Piraeus 0.13. Corners: 4-5.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 56.5% / 24.3% / 22.9% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 49.8% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 48.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Undervaluation of the Draw in 1x2 Market
The UEFA Champions League fixture between Bayer Leverkusen and Olympiakos Piraeus concluded with a goalless 0-0 draw. The 1x2 Market displayed a significant inefficiency: despite the match ending in a draw, the market heavily favored a Bayer Leverkusen victory with a 56.5% implied probability, drastically undervaluing the actual outcome (draw) which had only a 24.27% implied probability. In the Handicap Market, with a line of -0.75 for Bayer Leverkusen, the market correctly leaned towards Olympiakos covering +0.75, showing a 52.08% probability for the away side, which materialized with the 0-0 scoreline. For the Totals (O/U) Market, set at 3 goals, the market accurately identified the 'Under' as the more probable outcome with a 53.76% probability. The match's 0 total goals comfortably landed far below the set line, confirming the market's lean. The most pronounced error was the undervaluation of the draw in the 1x2 market.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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