Barcelona

7 - 2

Newcastle

Barcelona hosted Newcastle in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 7-2. Goals: Raphinha (6'), A. Elanga (15'), M. Bernal (18'), A. Elanga (28'), Lamine Yamal (45' pen), Fermin (51'), R. Lewandowski (56'), R. Lewandowski (61'), Raphinha (72'). OddsFlow deployed 15 trades across 5 waves, achieving 20% precision with a net result of $-6534.46 (ROI: -70.8%).

Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Barcelona leading 2-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Newcastle -1.5. Average expected value was 39.9%, with a combined stake of $1856. The sharpest edge was on Newcastle -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 85.4% probability versus the market's implied 48.2% — a 37.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.075. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1856.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 28' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Barcelona leading 2-1 at 28'. A. Elanga scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Barcelona and Newcastle -1 and Draw and Newcastle -0.5. Average expected value was 18.1%, with a combined stake of $4120. The sharpest edge was on Newcastle -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 85.7% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 30.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** 2 of 7 trades won, netting $-2500.16. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2 after A. Elanga's equalizer at 28'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Newcastle 0. Average expected value was 17.6%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Newcastle 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 57.8% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 21.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 46' (Score: 3-2) **Context:** Barcelona leading 3-2 at 46'. Lamine Yamal scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Newcastle -0.5 and Barcelona. Average expected value was 21.8%, with a combined stake of $1048. The sharpest edge was on Barcelona (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 72.3% probability versus the market's implied 51.2% — a 21.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.952. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$21.70. ### Wave 5 — Minute 50' (Score: 3-2) **Context:** Barcelona leading 3-2 at 50'. Lamine Yamal scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Newcastle -1. Average expected value was 38.5%, with a combined stake of $700. The sharpest edge was on Newcastle -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 91.1% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 36.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-700.00.

- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Newcastle -1.5: AI saw 85.4% vs market's 48.2% (37.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Newcastle -1.5: AI saw 85.2% vs market's 48.2% (37.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 50'** — Asian Handicap Newcastle -1: AI saw 91.1% vs market's 54.8% (36.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Newcastle -1: AI saw 85.7% vs market's 55.6% (30.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Newcastle -1: AI saw 85.4% vs market's 55.6% (29.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-678.30 (ROI: -38.8%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 1W/5L, $-2720.50 (ROI: -77.1%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 1W/5L, $-3135.66 (ROI: -79.4%)

Possession was 63%–37% in Barcelona's favor. Barcelona had 18 shots (13 on target) versus Newcastle's 5 (4 on target). Expected goals: Barcelona 4.29 — Newcastle 1.4. Corners: 6-1.