Barcelona0 - 2Atletico Madrid
BarcelonaWhat the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 65.8% / 19.8% / 18.0% |
| Asian handicap | -1.25 | 48.5% |
| Over / Under | 3.5 | 51.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market significantly underestimated Atletico Madrid's outright win probability.
In a UEFA Champions League fixture that saw Atletico Madrid clinch a decisive 2-0 victory over Barcelona, the market exhibited considerable inefficiency. The 1x2 market heavily favored Barcelona with an implied win probability of 65.79%, contrasting sharply with Atletico's actual outright win, signaling a clear Away Win EV+. On the Asian Handicap, set at Barcelona -1.25, Atletico Madrid covered comfortably, as the market's slight lean towards the underdog covering proved correct. Furthermore, the Goals Over/Under line of 3.5 saw the 'Under' hit emphatically with only 2 total goals, indicating another misjudgment by the market which had set even probabilities for Over and Under. This match highlights a significant failure in the pre-match pricing of Atletico Madrid's true win probability.
No entry signals — model found no valuable odds
Our AI analyzed Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets in real-time but did not detect sufficient edge.
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