Atletico Madrid1 - 2Bodo/Glimt
Atletico MadridWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-50 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Atletico Madrid hosted Bodo/Glimt in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 1-2. Goals: Alexander Sørloth (15'), Fredrik Sjøvold (34'), F. Sjovold (35'), Kasper Høgh (59'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-50.00 (ROI: -50.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 97' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Bodo/Glimt leading 1-2 at 97'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 3.5. Average expected value was 6.0%, with a combined stake of $100. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-50.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, $-50.00 (ROI: -50.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 65%–35% in Atletico Madrid's favor. Atletico Madrid had 27 shots (8 on target) versus Bodo/Glimt's 11 (7 on target). Expected goals: Atletico Madrid 2.07 — Bodo/Glimt 1.88. Corners: 11-1.
Verdict
A tough session at -50.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 77.5% / 14.7% / 11.4% |
| Asian handicap | -1.75 | 53.5% |
| Over / Under | 4 | 50.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market critically underestimated Bodo/Glimt in the 1x2 and Handicap markets.
The UEFA Champions League clash between Atletico Madrid and Bodo/Glimt concluded in a stunning 1-2 victory for the away side, defying strong market expectations. The 1x2 market had priced Atletico Madrid as overwhelming favorites with an implied win probability of 77.52% (odds 1.29). Bodo/Glimt's victory, carrying only an 11.42% implied probability, represents a significant EV+ opportunity for those who backed the underdog. On the Asian Handicap, Atletico Madrid was set at -1.75, which they failed to cover by a wide margin. This outcome highlights a considerable mispricing, indicating strong Closing Line Value (CLV) on Bodo/Glimt +1.75. The Totals market, set at Over/Under 4 goals, saw the Under hit with a final tally of 3 goals (1-2). While the market slightly favored the Under (52.08% probability), the primary inefficiency was undoubtedly the outright winner and handicap markets. OddsFlow models identified a clear signal against the prevailing market sentiment.
A tough session at -50.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.