Atletico Madrid1 - 1Arsenal
Atletico MadridWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-200 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Atletico Madrid hosted Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 1-1. Goals: V. Gyokeres (43' pen), V. Gyokeres (44' pen), J. Alvarez (56' pen). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to 0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.88 to 2; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.84 to 3.23.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (system_S5) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Arsenal. Average expected value was 9.3%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00.
Model Performance
- **system_S5**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Atletico Madrid had 18 shots (4 on target) versus Arsenal's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 31.0% / 29.2% / 42.5% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 52.6% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 50.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underpriced the probability of a draw.
In the UEFA Champions League clash between Atletico Madrid and Arsenal, which concluded 1-1, OddsFlow AI identifies a notable market inefficiency in the 1x2 market. The closing line indicated Arsenal as the outright favorite with a 42.55% win probability, while the draw was priced at a mere 29.24%. This significant underestimation of a tied outcome represents a clear Value Signal for bettors. Conversely, the Handicap Asian market (Atletico Madrid +0.25 at 52.63%) and the Goals Over/Under market (Under 2.25 at 52.36%) both showed a more accurate read on the match dynamics, with Atletico partially covering the spread and the Under 2.25 being a half-win. The market accurately leaned towards fewer goals and Atletico avoiding a full loss on the handicap.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.