Arsenal0 - 0Sporting CP
ArsenalWhy did AI enter 4 times at 25', 46', 53', 67' — and still finish +$3032?
Match Overview
Arsenal hosted Sporting CP in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 0-0. OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 4 waves, achieving 60% precision with a net result of +$3031.95 (ROI: +56.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Sporting CP -0.5 and Sporting CP -1. Average expected value was 10.8%, with a combined stake of $2734. The sharpest edge was on Sporting CP -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 72.1% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 18.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** 3 of 5 trades won, netting +$341.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 46' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 46'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Sporting CP -1. Average expected value was 17.7%, with a combined stake of $1117. The sharpest edge was on Sporting CP -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.9% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 25.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$2024.45. ### Wave 3 — Minute 53' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 53'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 6.3%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 31.7% probability versus the market's implied 23.1% — a 8.6 percentage point gap at odds of 4.333. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1666.50. ### Wave 4 — Minute 67' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 67'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 46'** — Asian Handicap Sporting CP -1: AI saw 79.9% vs market's 54.1% (25.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Sporting CP -1: AI saw 72.1% vs market's 54.1% (18.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 75.6% vs market's 65.2% (10.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$1626.95 (ROI: +59.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$1405.00 (ROI: +54.1%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 51%–49% in Arsenal's favor. Arsenal had 15 shots (1 on target) versus Sporting CP's 7 (1 on target). Expected goals: Arsenal 0.67 — Sporting CP 0.23. Corners: 8-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +56.7% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$1626.95.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 64.5% / 23.0% / 16.2% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 51.3% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 53.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly misjudged the goal total, overpricing the Over 2.5.
The UEFA Champions League fixture between Arsenal and Sporting CP concluded in a 0-0 draw. The 1x2 market heavily favored Arsenal with a 64.52% win probability, significantly underestimating the Draw outcome (22.99%). In the Asian Handicap market, Arsenal was offered at -1 with a 51.28% chance to cover. Given the goalless draw, Arsenal failed to cover, indicating a clear market error against the favorite. The most pronounced inefficiency was in the Totals market: despite the line being set at 2.5, with the market leaning towards Over (53.76% probability), the match ended with zero goals. This represents a substantial mispricing, presenting strong EV+ for the Under 2.5 bet.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +56.7% ROI on 10 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$1626.95.
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