Arsenal2 - 0Bayer Leverkusen
ArsenalWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 37' — and still finish $-1574?
Match Overview
Arsenal hosted Bayer Leverkusen in the UEFA Champions League, finishing 2-0. Goals: E. Eze (36'), D. Rice (63'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 2 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of $-1573.55 (ROI: -27.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Bayer Leverkusen -1 and Draw. Average expected value was 31.0%, with a combined stake of $4013. The sharpest edge was on Bayer Leverkusen -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.5% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 40.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-4013.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 37' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Arsenal leading 1-0 at 37'. E. Eze scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bayer Leverkusen -1.5. Average expected value was 50.1%, with a combined stake of $1807. The sharpest edge was on Bayer Leverkusen -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 90.5% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 47.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$2439.45.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Bayer Leverkusen -1.5: AI saw 90.5% vs market's 42.6% (47.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Bayer Leverkusen -1.5: AI saw 90.4% vs market's 42.6% (47.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Bayer Leverkusen -1.5: AI saw 89.7% vs market's 42.6% (47.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Bayer Leverkusen -1: AI saw 83.5% vs market's 42.6% (40.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Bayer Leverkusen -1: AI saw 83.4% vs market's 42.6% (40.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$128.15 (ROI: +8.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-548.35 (ROI: -29.4%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-1153.35 (ROI: -46.8%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 42%–58% in Arsenal's deficit. Arsenal had 20 shots (11 on target) versus Bayer Leverkusen's 9 (2 on target). Expected goals: Arsenal 1.74 — Bayer Leverkusen 0.52. Corners: 10-7.
Verdict
A tough session at -27.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$128.15.
A tough session at -27.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Active Trader at +$128.15.
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