Werder Bremen

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FSV Mainz 05

Werder Bremen hosted FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga, finishing 0-2. Goals: P. Nebel (5'), P. Nebel (6'), Lee Jae-Sung (52'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 4 waves, achieving 67% precision with a net result of +$116.50 (ROI: +3.0%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 2.04 to 1.83; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.97 to 2.04; the home moneyline shortened from 2.34 to 2.11.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** FSV Mainz 05 leading 0-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting FSV Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen +0.5. Average expected value was 26.9%, with a combined stake of $2350. The sharpest edge was on Werder Bremen +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 85.4% probability versus the market's implied 49.4% — a 36.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.025. **Result:** 1 of 3 trades won, netting $-1433.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 29' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** FSV Mainz 05 leading 0-1 at 29'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting FSV Mainz 05. Average expected value was 5.4%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$400.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 40' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** FSV Mainz 05 leading 0-1 at 40'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting FSV Mainz 05 0. Average expected value was 12.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on FSV Mainz 05 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 56.6% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 10.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$575.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 44' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** FSV Mainz 05 leading 0-1 at 44'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting FSV Mainz 05 0. Average expected value was 14.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on FSV Mainz 05 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.6% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 12.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$575.00.

- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Werder Bremen +0.5: AI saw 85.4% vs market's 49.4% (36.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Werder Bremen +0.5: AI saw 85.3% vs market's 49.4% (35.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap FSV Mainz 05 0: AI saw 58.6% vs market's 46.5% (12.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 40'** — Asian Handicap FSV Mainz 05 0: AI saw 56.6% vs market's 46.5% (10.1pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$68.50 (ROI: +3.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$48.00 (ROI: +2.5%)

Possession was 67%–33% in Werder Bremen's favor. Werder Bremen had 16 shots (3 on target) versus FSV Mainz 05's 11 (2 on target). Expected goals: Werder Bremen 0.87 — FSV Mainz 05 1.08. Corners: 8-4.