Werder Bremen1 - 3FC Augsburg
Werder BremenWhat the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 49.5% / 25.9% / 27.6% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 49.3% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 53.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued FC Augsburg's outright win potential in the 1x2 market.
In the Bundesliga clash between Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg, the final score of 1:3 saw FC Augsburg secure a decisive away victory. The 1x2 market significantly misjudged this outcome, with Werder Bremen closing as the clear favorite at an implied win probability of 49.5%. FC Augsburg's win, carrying an implied probability of just 27.55%, represents a substantial market inefficiency. Similarly, on the Asian Handicap, Werder Bremen was priced at -0.5 (49.26% to cover), a bet that failed spectacularly as Augsburg won outright. Conversely, the Goals Over/Under market on a 3-goal line was more accurate, with the 'Over' at 53.48% probability, correctly anticipating the 4 actual goals scored. The most glaring error was the underestimation of FC Augsburg's ability to secure an outright victory.
No entry signals — model found no valuable odds
Our AI analyzed Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets in real-time but did not detect sufficient edge.
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