Werder Bremen0 - 2Borussia Dortmund
Werder BremenWhy did AI enter 6 times at 0', 10', 35', 44', 49', 60' — and still finish $-20?
Match Overview
Werder Bremen hosted Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga, finishing 0-2. Goals: S. Guirassy (59'), Y. Couto (90'). OddsFlow deployed 26 trades across 6 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of $-19.62 (ROI: -1.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.92 to 1.89; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 3.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 12.8%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 59.1% probability versus the market's implied 52.4% — a 6.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.91. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$9.10. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Borussia Dortmund +0.5. Average expected value was 9.2%, with a combined stake of $60. The sharpest edge was on Borussia Dortmund +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 55.3% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 6.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$63.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Borussia Dortmund +0.5 and Under 2.5 and Borussia Dortmund. Average expected value was 6.8%, with a combined stake of $605. **Result:** All 11 trades won, netting +$630.28. ### Wave 4 — Minute 44' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 44'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $120. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 48.0% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 5.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-120.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 49' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 49'. 2 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 1.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 6.4%, with a combined stake of $280. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 53.6% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 6.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 5 trades lost, netting $-280.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 60' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 60'. 4 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Werder Bremen +1 and Draw. Average expected value was 23.5%, with a combined stake of $322. The sharpest edge was on Werder Bremen +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.6% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 18.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-322.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 60'** — Asian Handicap Werder Bremen +1: AI saw 62.6% vs market's 44.4% (18.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 60'** — Asian Handicap Werder Bremen +1: AI saw 62.4% vs market's 44.4% (17.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 60'** — Asian Handicap Werder Bremen +1: AI saw 62.2% vs market's 44.4% (17.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 60'** — Asian Handicap Werder Bremen +1: AI saw 61.7% vs market's 44.4% (17.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 60'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 33.5% vs market's 21.1% (12.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 9 trades, 5W/4L, +$60.36 (ROI: +13.5%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$9.10 (ROI: +91.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$3.00 (ROI: +2.5%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/4L, $-46.04 (ROI: -11.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/4L, $-46.04 (ROI: -11.2%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 51–49 in Werder Bremen's favor. Werder Bremen had 9 shots (3 on target) versus Borussia Dortmund's 16 (8 on target). Expected goals: Werder Bremen 0.42 — Borussia Dortmund 2.53. Corners: 4-5.
Verdict
A marginally negative session at -1.4% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$60.36.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 29.3% / 24.1% / 49.3% |
| Asian handicap | +0.5 | 49.3% |
| Over / Under | 3.5 | 50.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued the probability of Under 3.5 goals.
The match between Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund concluded 0-2, with Borussia Dortmund securing a clear away victory. The 1x2 market accurately priced Dortmund as the favorite (49.26% implied probability), aligning with the actual outcome. In the Handicap Asian market, Dortmund covering the -0.5 line had an implied probability of 49.26%. Despite the market slightly favoring Werder Bremen +0.5, Dortmund ultimately covered the spread with their 2-0 win. The most notable market inefficiency emerged in the Totals (Over/Under 3.5 goals). While the market leaned slightly towards the Under at 52.36% implied probability, the final score of 2 goals meant the Under hit comfortably. This suggests the market significantly underestimated the probability of a low-scoring affair, presenting a clear EV+ opportunity for Under bettors.
A marginally negative session at -1.4% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: Active Trader at +$60.36.
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