VfL Wolfsburg

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Werder Bremen

VfL Wolfsburg hosted Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga, finishing 0-1. Goals: J. Njinmah (68'). VfL Wolfsburg received a red card (M. Jenz, 90'). OddsFlow deployed 4 trades across 2 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$100.00 (ROI: +5.0%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to -0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.83 to 2.03; the home moneyline shortened from 2.61 to 2.46.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Werder Bremen 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 11.4%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Werder Bremen 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.5% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 10.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$600.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 34' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 34'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.8%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00.

- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Werder Bremen 0: AI saw 58.5% vs market's 47.6% (10.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Werder Bremen 0: AI saw 58.2% vs market's 47.6% (10.5pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$50.00 (ROI: +5.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$50.00 (ROI: +5.0%)

Possession was 57%–43% in VfL Wolfsburg's favor. VfL Wolfsburg had 11 shots (4 on target) versus Werder Bremen's 8 (3 on target). Expected goals: VfL Wolfsburg 0.76 — Werder Bremen 0.37. Corners: 8-4.