VfL Wolfsburg2 - 3FC Augsburg
VfL Wolfsburg1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
VfL Wolfsburg hosted FC Augsburg in the Bundesliga, finishing 2-3. Goals: Y. Gerhardt (41'), R. Ribeiro (59'), K. Shiogai (70'), M. Gregoritsch (87' pen), E. Rexhbecaj (90'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$180.00 (ROI: +90.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.85 to 1.96; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.07 to 2.24.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting FC Augsburg 0. Average expected value was 5.6%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on FC Augsburg 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.2% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 5.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$180.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$180.00 (ROI: +90.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 49%–51% in VfL Wolfsburg's deficit. VfL Wolfsburg had 9 shots (4 on target) versus FC Augsburg's 15 (6 on target). Expected goals: VfL Wolfsburg 1.57 — FC Augsburg 1.78. Corners: 4-10.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +90.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 44.6% / 28.7% / 29.3% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 51.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market fundamentally mispriced FC Augsburg's outright win potential in the 1x2 market, favoring VfL Wolfsburg.
In a thrilling Bundesliga encounter, FC Augsburg secured a 3-2 away victory against VfL Wolfsburg. The OddsFlow model identified significant **market inefficiencies**. The 1x2 market heavily favored VfL Wolfsburg with a 44.64% implied win probability, while FC Augsburg was priced at a mere 29.33%. This presented a clear **value bet** on Augsburg, who delivered an outright win. On the Asian Handicap market (line -0.25 for Wolfsburg), the market sentiment leaned slightly towards Wolfsburg covering with 51.81% probability. However, Augsburg's 3-2 victory meant they comfortably covered the underdog handicap. Furthermore, the **Totals market** (O/U 2.75) showed a slight lean towards the Under (51.55% probability), despite the match ultimately producing a high-scoring 5 goals, indicating strong **EV+** on the Over.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +90.0% ROI on 1 trades.
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