VfL Wolfsburg1 - 2Eintracht Frankfurt
VfL Wolfsburg9 trades, 56% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
VfL Wolfsburg hosted Eintracht Frankfurt in the Bundesliga, finishing 1-2. Goals: O. Hojlund (21'), A. Kalimuendo (32'), D. Pejcinovic (90'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 1 wave, achieving 56% precision with a net result of +$1426.94 (ROI: +28.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Eintracht Frankfurt leading 0-1 at 25'. O. Hojlund scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Eintracht Frankfurt 0 and Over 2.5 and VfL Wolfsburg +0.5 and Over 3.5 and Eintracht Frankfurt. Average expected value was 15.8%, with a combined stake of $4978. The sharpest edge was on VfL Wolfsburg +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.8% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 21.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** 5 of 9 trades won, netting +$1426.94.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap VfL Wolfsburg +0.5: AI saw 65.8% vs market's 44.4% (21.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap VfL Wolfsburg +0.5: AI saw 65.6% vs market's 44.4% (21.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 81.7% vs market's 63.7% (18.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 81.0% vs market's 63.7% (17.4pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/1L/1V, +$781.19 (ROI: +30.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$645.75 (ROI: +26.8%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 50%–50% in VfL Wolfsburg's deficit. VfL Wolfsburg had 20 shots (4 on target) versus Eintracht Frankfurt's 10 (4 on target). Expected goals: VfL Wolfsburg 1.71 — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.29. Corners: 6-7.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +28.7% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$781.19.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 38.3% / 27.5% / 36.9% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 49.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued Eintracht Frankfurt's outright win potential.
Eintracht Frankfurt secured a 2-1 away victory against VfL Wolfsburg in a Bundesliga fixture. The 1x2 market closing probabilities indicated VfL Wolfsburg as a marginal favorite (38.31%) over Eintracht Frankfurt (36.9%), highlighting a clear market inefficiency as Frankfurt secured the outright win. This offered significant Closing Line Value (CLV) for away backers. In the Handicap market (line 0), VfL Wolfsburg was slightly favored to cover (51.81%) versus Eintracht Frankfurt (50%). Frankfurt's 2-1 victory meant they successfully covered the spread, confirming the bookmakers' underestimation. For the Totals market, the Over/Under line was set at 3 goals, with the market leaning towards the Under (52.63% probability). The match concluded with exactly 3 goals, resulting in a push for bets on both Over and Under at this specific line. This suggests the market's slight preference for Under did not materialize into a winning bet, indicating the goal count was at the higher end of expectations for the Under side.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +28.7% ROI on 9 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$781.19.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.