VfL Wolfsburg1 - 2Borussia Dortmund
VfL Wolfsburg1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
VfL Wolfsburg hosted Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga, finishing 1-2. Goals: J. Brandt (38'), K. Koulierakis (52'), S. Guirassy (87'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$178.24 (ROI: +105.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.91 to 1.96; the home moneyline drifted out from 4.31 to 4.49.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 72' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 72'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Borussia Dortmund +0.25. Average expected value was 7.1%, with a combined stake of $170. The sharpest edge was on Borussia Dortmund +0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 55.9% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 7.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$178.24.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$178.24 (ROI: +105.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 34%–66% in VfL Wolfsburg's deficit. VfL Wolfsburg had 12 shots (2 on target) versus Borussia Dortmund's 21 (4 on target). Expected goals: VfL Wolfsburg 1.45 — Borussia Dortmund 1.27. Corners: 4-8.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +105.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 22.3% / 23.9% / 57.5% |
| Asian handicap | +0.75 | 51.5% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 51.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Value on Away Handicap Cover
The Bundesliga fixture between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund concluded 1-2, with Borussia Dortmund securing the away victory. In the 1x2 market, Dortmund were correctly identified as the market favorite with an implied probability of 57.47% to win. The Asian Handicap market set the line at -0.75 for Borussia Dortmund, with their probability to cover at 51.55%. Despite the tight margin, Dortmund's 2-1 victory meant they successfully covered the handicap, indicating a subtle value signal for those backing the away side. For the Totals (Over/Under) market, the closing line was 3.0 goals, with both Over and Under priced at 51.55% probability. The match ended with exactly 3 goals, resulting in a push on the 3.0 line, showcasing remarkable efficiency by the market in anticipating the precise goal count.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +105.0% ROI on 1 trades.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.