VfL Wolfsburg0 - 1Bayern München
VfL WolfsburgWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-504 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
VfL Wolfsburg hosted Bayern München in the Bundesliga, finishing 0-1. Goals: M. Olise (56'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-504.00 (ROI: -50.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 1.25 but home odds shifted from 1.84 to 1.88; the home moneyline drifted out from 4.92 to 5.1.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bayern München +1.25. Average expected value was 42.7%, with a combined stake of $1008. The sharpest edge was on Bayern München +1.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.6% probability versus the market's implied 48.5% — a 17.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.06. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-504.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 0'** — Asian Handicap Bayern München +1.25: AI saw 65.6% vs market's 48.5% (17.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, $-504.00 (ROI: -50.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 31–69 in VfL Wolfsburg's deficit. VfL Wolfsburg had 16 shots (5 on target) versus Bayern München's 16 (9 on target). Expected goals: VfL Wolfsburg 3.05 — Bayern München 1.85. Corners: 6-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -50.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 19.6% / 19.9% / 64.1% |
| Asian handicap | +1.25 | 48.5% |
| Over / Under | 4 | 50.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overestimated the total goals, creating a strong value signal on Under 4.0 goals.
The Bundesliga fixture between VfL Wolfsburg and Bayern München concluded 0-1, with Bayern securing a narrow victory. The 1x2 market correctly identified Bayern as the clear favorite with a 64.1% implied probability, aligning with the actual outcome. In the Handicap market, the -1.25 line saw Bayern München failing to cover, as they won by a single goal. The market probabilities of 53.19% for VfL Wolfsburg (+1.25) and 48.54% for Bayern München (-1.25) showed a slight lean towards the underdog covering, which proved accurate. However, the most notable inefficiency was in the Totals (Over/Under) market. With a closing line of 4 goals, the actual total was only 1, highlighting a significant divergence from the market's expectation. The 'Under 4 goals' held substantial Closing Line Value (CLV), despite being marginally favored at 51.81% probability. This represents a strong Value Signal detected by the OddsFlow model, indicating bookmakers significantly overestimated the scoring potential of this match.
A tough session at -50.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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