VfB Stuttgart1 - 1Werder Bremen
VfB StuttgartWhy did AI enter 4 times at 15', 42', 46', 69' — and still finish +$4306?
Match Overview
VfB Stuttgart hosted Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga, finishing 1-1. Goals: J. Stage (18'), E. Demirovic (61'). OddsFlow deployed 15 trades across 4 waves, achieving 53% precision with a net result of +$4306.00 (ROI: +59.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1 but home odds shifted from 1.92 to 1.9; the Over/Under stayed at 3.25 with Over odds moving from 1.89 to 1.95.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting VfB Stuttgart -1.5. Average expected value was 7.7%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on VfB Stuttgart -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 46.3% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 42' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Werder Bremen leading 0-1 at 42'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting VfB Stuttgart -0.5 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 22.5%, with a combined stake of $1540. The sharpest edge was on VfB Stuttgart -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.6% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 27.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$1845.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 46' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Werder Bremen leading 0-1 at 46'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 13.7%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 66.3% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 16.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$785.50. ### Wave 4 — Minute 69' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after E. Demirovic's equalizer at 61'. Werder Bremen made 4 substitutions. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Werder Bremen 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 11.1%, with a combined stake of $4500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 47.9% probability versus the market's implied 30.8% — a 17.1 percentage point gap at odds of 3.25. **Result:** 3 of 9 trades won, netting +$1875.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 42'** — Asian Handicap VfB Stuttgart -0.5: AI saw 68.6% vs market's 41.2% (27.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 42'** — Asian Handicap VfB Stuttgart -0.5: AI saw 67.9% vs market's 41.2% (26.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 69'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 47.9% vs market's 30.8% (17.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 69'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 47.9% vs market's 30.8% (17.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 46'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 66.3% vs market's 50.0% (16.3pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/1L/1V, +$1874.55 (ROI: +74.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/1L/1V, +$1720.95 (ROI: +68.5%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$910.50 (ROI: +45.5%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
VfB Stuttgart had 19 shots (5 on target) versus Werder Bremen's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +59.5% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$1874.55.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 64.1% / 22.2% / 17.2% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 52.6% |
| Over / Under | 3.25 | 51.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market significantly undervalued the draw.
The Bundesliga fixture between VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen concluded in a 1-1 draw, a significant market inefficiency given the closing 1x2 odds. The market heavily favored Stuttgart with a 64.1% implied win probability, while the draw was priced at just 22.17%. This outcome represents a strong Value Signal for those backing the draw. Furthermore, the Asian Handicap market also presented an inefficiency; with Stuttgart (-1) favored to cover at 52.63%, Werder Bremen (+1) easily covered. The Goals Over/Under line of 3.25 saw the market slightly lean towards the Over (51.28%), yet the match finished with only 2 goals, resulting in an Under outcome. Overall, the biggest mispricing was the underestimation of a draw.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +59.5% ROI on 15 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$1874.55.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.