VfB Stuttgart1 - 0SC Freiburg
VfB StuttgartWhy did AI enter 2 times at 40', 75' — and still finish $-68?
Match Overview
VfB Stuttgart hosted SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga, finishing 1-0. Goals: E. Demirovic (89'), E. Demirovic (90'). OddsFlow deployed 4 trades across 2 waves, achieving 25% precision with a net result of $-67.50 (ROI: -19.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.91 to 1.88; the Over/Under stayed at 3 with Over odds moving from 1.97 to 2.08.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 40' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 40'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting VfB Stuttgart -0.75. Average expected value was 8.5%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on VfB Stuttgart -0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.3% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 8.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$82.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 75' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 75'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 1.1%, with a combined stake of $150. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-150.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 4 trades, 0W/3L/1V, $-67.50 (ROI: -19.3%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 71%–29% in VfB Stuttgart's favor. VfB Stuttgart had 18 shots (7 on target) versus SC Freiburg's 11 (2 on target). Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 1.62 — SC Freiburg 0.7. Corners: 6-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -19.3% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 59.5% / 23.7% / 20.3% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 53.2% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 48.1% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued the 'Under 3.0 Goals' outcome, leading to an EV+ signal.
VfB Stuttgart secured a 1-0 victory over SC Freiburg. In the 1x2 market, the closing line accurately priced VfB Stuttgart as the clear favorite with a 59.52% implied win probability, which materialized into a home win. On the Asian Handicap market, Stuttgart, priced at -0.75 with a 53.19% cover probability, managed a half-win for backers with their single-goal victory, indicating the market was somewhat efficient but perhaps slightly over-optimistic on a full cover. However, the most significant inefficiency was observed in the Totals market. Despite the market leaning towards the Under 3.0 Goals at 54.35% implied probability, the final score of 1 goal highlights a substantial value signal on the Under, as the actual low-scoring outcome was even more pronounced than anticipated, suggesting the market underestimated the certainty of a tight affair.
A tough session at -19.3% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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