VfB Stuttgart

1 - 0

RB Leipzig

VfB Stuttgart hosted RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga, finishing 1-0. Goals: D. Undav (56'). OddsFlow deployed 15 trades across 4 waves, achieving 60% precision with a net result of +$4000.90 (ROI: +52.3%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.83 to 1.92; the Over/Under stayed at 3.5 with Over odds moving from 2 to 1.92; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.42 to 2.53.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting VfB Stuttgart and VfB Stuttgart 0 and VfB Stuttgart -0.5 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 16.9%, with a combined stake of $3500. The sharpest edge was on VfB Stuttgart (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 59.1% probability versus the market's implied 38.1% — a 21.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.625. **Result:** 6 of 7 trades won, netting +$3787.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 29' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 29'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 8.2%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 58.2% probability versus the market's implied 52.4% — a 5.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.909. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 57' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** VfB Stuttgart leading 1-0 at 57'. D. Undav scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 1.5 and RB Leipzig -1 and RB Leipzig 0. Average expected value was 26.1%, with a combined stake of $3132. The sharpest edge was on RB Leipzig -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 86.5% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 37.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting +$188.60. ### Wave 4 — Minute 80' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** VfB Stuttgart leading 1-0 at 80'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting RB Leipzig -1. Average expected value was 50.0%, with a combined stake of $512. The sharpest edge was on RB Leipzig -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.4% probability versus the market's implied 49.4% — a 48.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.025. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$524.80.

- **Minute 80'** — Asian Handicap RB Leipzig -1: AI saw 97.4% vs market's 49.4% (48.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 57'** — Asian Handicap RB Leipzig -1: AI saw 86.5% vs market's 48.8% (37.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 57'** — Asian Handicap RB Leipzig -1: AI saw 86.2% vs market's 48.8% (37.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Moneyline VfB Stuttgart: AI saw 59.1% vs market's 38.1% (21.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap VfB Stuttgart -0.5: AI saw 59.5% vs market's 38.5% (21.0pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 5W/2L/1V, +$2309.75 (ROI: +56.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/2L/1V, +$1691.15 (ROI: +47.5%)

Possession was 58%–42% in VfB Stuttgart's favor. VfB Stuttgart had 12 shots (3 on target) versus RB Leipzig's 9 (4 on target). Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 1.02 — RB Leipzig 1.12. Corners: 5-6.