VfB Stuttgart3 - 1Bayer Leverkusen
VfB StuttgartWhy did AI enter 5 times at 0', 15', 25', 46', 53' — and still finish +$448?
Match Overview
VfB Stuttgart hosted Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga, finishing 3-1. Goals: A. Garcia (1'), E. Demirovic (5'), M. Mittelstadt (45' pen), D. Undav (58'). OddsFlow deployed 24 trades across 5 waves, achieving 46% precision with a net result of +$447.76 (ROI: +3.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 2.05; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.5 to 3.75; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.1 to 2.32.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting VfB Stuttgart. Average expected value was 18.3%, with a combined stake of $692. The sharpest edge was on VfB Stuttgart (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 51.0% probability versus the market's implied 43.1% — a 7.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.32. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$913.44. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after E. Demirovic's equalizer at 5'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bayer Leverkusen 0. Average expected value was 15.1%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Bayer Leverkusen 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 51.3% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 12.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 5.5 and Bayer Leverkusen 0 and Draw and Under 4.5. Average expected value was 10.4%, with a combined stake of $3508. The sharpest edge was on Bayer Leverkusen 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 53.7% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 11.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** 4 of 7 trades won, netting +$204.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 46' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** VfB Stuttgart leading 2-1 at 46'. M. Mittelstadt scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 4.5 and Draw and Bayer Leverkusen 0 and Under 4.5 and Bayer Leverkusen -1 and Under 5.5. Average expected value was 21.5%, with a combined stake of $6044. The sharpest edge was on Bayer Leverkusen -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 89.3% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 42.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** 2 of 11 trades won, netting $-2269.68. ### Wave 5 — Minute 53' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** VfB Stuttgart leading 2-1 at 53'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting VfB Stuttgart. Average expected value was 27.8%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on VfB Stuttgart (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 71.9% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 26.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$1800.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Bayer Leverkusen -1: AI saw 89.3% vs market's 46.5% (42.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Bayer Leverkusen -1: AI saw 89.0% vs market's 46.5% (42.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Bayer Leverkusen -1: AI saw 88.3% vs market's 46.5% (41.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 53'** — Moneyline VfB Stuttgart: AI saw 71.9% vs market's 45.5% (26.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 53'** — Moneyline VfB Stuttgart: AI saw 71.9% vs market's 45.5% (26.4pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$913.44 (ROI: +132.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/3L/1V, $-46.00 (ROI: -1.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/3L/1V, $-50.00 (ROI: -1.4%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/3L/1V, $-169.68 (ROI: -4.4%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 49–51 in VfB Stuttgart's deficit. VfB Stuttgart had 20 shots (9 on target) versus Bayer Leverkusen's 6 (5 on target). Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 2.78 — Bayer Leverkusen 0.56. Corners: 6-6.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +3.7% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at +$913.44.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 43.1% / 24.8% / 35.0% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 53.2% |
| Over / Under | 3.75 | 49.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market severely misjudged VfB Stuttgart's ability to cover the -0.25 Asian Handicap line.
VfB Stuttgart secured a commanding 3-1 victory over Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. The 1x2 market correctly identified Stuttgart as the slight favorite, with a 43.1% implied win probability. However, the Asian Handicap market presented a clear inefficiency; despite Stuttgart closing at -0.25, the market leaned towards Bayer Leverkusen +0.25 with a 53.19% probability to cover. Stuttgart's decisive 3-1 win meant they comfortably covered their line, indicating a significant Closing Line Value (CLV) error by the market. Similarly, the Totals market, with a line of 3.75, favored the "Under" at 53.19%. The match's 4 total goals saw the "Over" hit, again exposing a mispricing by the bookmakers.
A positive result with +3.7% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$447.76. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at +$913.44.
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