Union Berlin1 - 2VfL Wolfsburg
Union BerlinWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 45' — and still finish $-23?
Match Overview
Union Berlin hosted VfL Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga, finishing 1-2. Goals: P. Wimmer (11'), D. Pejcinovic (46'), O. Burke (85'), O. Burke (86'). OddsFlow deployed 15 trades across 2 waves, achieving 40% precision with a net result of $-22.97 (ROI: -0.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.9 to 1.91.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** VfL Wolfsburg leading 0-1 at 25'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Union Berlin +0.5 and Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 and Union Berlin and Union Berlin -0.5. Average expected value was 15.6%, with a combined stake of $7985. The sharpest edge was on Union Berlin +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.7% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 32.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** 6 of 13 trades won, netting $-22.97. ### Wave 2 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** VfL Wolfsburg leading 0-1 at 45'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting VfL Wolfsburg 0. Average expected value was 8.2%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on VfL Wolfsburg 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 49.4% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 6.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Union Berlin +0.5: AI saw 82.7% vs market's 50.6% (32.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Union Berlin +0.5: AI saw 82.6% vs market's 50.6% (31.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Union Berlin +0.5: AI saw 82.3% vs market's 50.6% (31.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Over 3.5: AI saw 50.7% vs market's 40.0% (10.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap Union Berlin -0.5: AI saw 58.0% vs market's 47.6% (10.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, +$159.80 (ROI: +6.4%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/2L/1V, +$157.97 (ROI: +5.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/3L/1V, $-340.75 (ROI: -9.8%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 53%–47% in Union Berlin's favor. Union Berlin had 24 shots (7 on target) versus VfL Wolfsburg's 5 (4 on target). Expected goals: Union Berlin 2.11 — VfL Wolfsburg 0.19. Corners: 10-4.
Verdict
A marginally negative session at -0.3% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$159.80.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 45.7% / 27.9% / 29.9% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 52.4% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 53.2% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 and Asian Handicap markets significantly undervalued a VfL Wolfsburg away win.
VfL Wolfsburg secured an important 2-1 away victory against Union Berlin. The 1x2 market showed a clear inefficiency, with Union Berlin priced as the favorite at 45.66% implied probability, while Wolfsburg's actual win came in at a lower implied probability of 29.94%. This represents significant Closing Line Value (CLV) for those backing the underdog. Similarly, the Asian Handicap market (-0.25 for Union Berlin) also failed to accurately predict the outcome; Union Berlin was expected to cover with 52.36% probability, but Wolfsburg not only won but also comfortably covered the +0.25 spread. Conversely, the Goals Over/Under market correctly leaned towards Over 2.5 goals (53.19% probability), with the match concluding with 3 total goals, indicating a relatively efficient assessment in this specific market.
A marginally negative session at -0.3% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$159.80.
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