Union Berlin

4 - 0

FC Augsburg

Union Berlin hosted FC Augsburg in the Bundesliga, finishing 4-0. Goals: A. Ilic (10'), A. Ilic (42'), A. Schafer (54'), Jeong Woo-Yeong (89'). OddsFlow deployed 23 trades across 7 waves, achieving 17% precision with a net result of $-1191.84 (ROI: -72.2%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to 0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 3.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.52 to 2.8.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 11.9%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 58.6% probability versus the market's implied 52.4% — a 6.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.91. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 11' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Union Berlin leading 1-0 at 11'. A. Ilic scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting FC Augsburg -0.5 and FC Augsburg -1. Average expected value was 36.5%, with a combined stake of $187. The sharpest edge was on FC Augsburg -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 92.5% probability versus the market's implied 57.1% — a 35.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.75. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-187.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Union Berlin leading 1-0 at 35'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 3.5 and FC Augsburg -1 and Union Berlin and Under 3.25 and FC Augsburg -0.5. Average expected value was 29.7%, with a combined stake of $979. The sharpest edge was on FC Augsburg -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 94.6% probability versus the market's implied 58.0% — a 36.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.725. **Result:** 1 of 13 trades won, netting $-882.10. ### Wave 4 — Minute 39' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Union Berlin leading 1-0 at 39'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting FC Augsburg -0.5. Average expected value was 40.2%, with a combined stake of $60. The sharpest edge was on FC Augsburg -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.3% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 37.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-60.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 42' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Union Berlin leading 1-0 at 42'. A. Ilic scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 4.5 and FC Augsburg -1.5. Average expected value was 42.6%, with a combined stake of $292. The sharpest edge was on FC Augsburg -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 94.5% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 52.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting $-34.36. ### Wave 6 — Minute 51' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** Union Berlin leading 2-0 at 51'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting FC Augsburg -1.5. Average expected value was 61.2%, with a combined stake of $62. The sharpest edge was on FC Augsburg -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 96.4% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 59.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-62.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 59' (Score: 3-0) **Context:** Union Berlin leading 3-0 at 59'. A. Schafer scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5. Average expected value was 16.2%, with a combined stake of $60. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 71.1% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 13.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$43.62.

- **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap FC Augsburg -1.5: AI saw 96.4% vs market's 37.4% (59.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 42'** — Asian Handicap FC Augsburg -1.5: AI saw 94.5% vs market's 42.6% (52.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 42'** — Asian Handicap FC Augsburg -1.5: AI saw 94.6% vs market's 42.6% (52.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 39'** — Asian Handicap FC Augsburg -0.5: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 42.6% (37.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap FC Augsburg -1: AI saw 94.6% vs market's 58.0% (36.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-187.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 1W/4L, $-242.38 (ROI: -70.1%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 2W/6L, $-358.42 (ROI: -62.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 1W/6L, $-394.04 (ROI: -73.4%)

Possession was 49–51 in Union Berlin's deficit. Union Berlin had 14 shots (8 on target) versus FC Augsburg's 11 (1 on target). Expected goals: Union Berlin 1.96 — FC Augsburg 0.56. Corners: 3-8.