Union Berlin1 - 0Bayer Leverkusen
Union Berlin1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Union Berlin hosted Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga, finishing 1-0. Goals: R. Khedira (28'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$2023.34 (ROI: +200.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.78 to 1.85; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.87 to 1.95; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.93 to 3.11.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Union Berlin. Average expected value was 16.2%, with a combined stake of $1012. The sharpest edge was on Union Berlin (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 38.7% probability versus the market's implied 33.3% — a 5.4 percentage point gap at odds of 3. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$2023.34.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$2023.34 (ROI: +200.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 36%–64% in Union Berlin's deficit. Union Berlin had 8 shots (4 on target) versus Bayer Leverkusen's 14 (1 on target). Expected goals: Union Berlin 0.64 — Bayer Leverkusen 0.75. Corners: 4-5.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +200.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 32.1% / 29.1% / 41.5% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 54.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 51.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The most significant market inefficiency was the underestimation of Union Berlin's outright win potential in the 1x2 market.
Union Berlin secured a 1-0 victory over Bayer Leverkusen. In the 1x2 market, the model projected Bayer Leverkusen as the favorite with a 41.49% win probability, significantly underestimating Union Berlin's 32.15% chance. This outright home win against an away favorite represents substantial Closing Line Value (CLV). The Asian Handicap market, set at +0.25 for Union Berlin, saw them cover with a 54.05% probability according to the model, which aligns with the actual 1-0 score. For the Totals (O/U 2.5), the market leaned slightly towards the Over (51.28% vs 51.28% for Under). However, the single goal scored resulted in the Under 2.5 hitting, indicating a minor market miss in the goal expectation.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +200.0% ROI on 1 trades.
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