Union Berlin2 - 21. FC Köln
Union BerlinWhat the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 39.4% / 29.0% / 34.4% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 54.6% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 50.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated the probability of Over 2.75 goals.
The Bundesliga clash between Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln concluded in a 2-2 draw, resulting in a total of 4 goals. Analyzing the closing lines, OddsFlow AI identified a significant market inefficiency in the Totals market. The Over/Under 2.75 goals market had the Under slightly favored at 52.08% probability, compared to the Over at 50.25%. With 4 goals scored, the match comfortably hit the Over, indicating that the bookmakers underestimated the goal-scoring potential. The 1x2 market correctly identified Union Berlin as the slight favorite, but the draw outcome (28.99% ML prob) was a less likely scenario than their implied odds suggested for a clear win. The Asian Handicap (0 line) also reflected a slight lean towards Union Berlin (54.64% to cover), but the draw meant neither side covered.
No entry signals — model found no valuable odds
Our AI analyzed Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets in real-time but did not detect sufficient edge.
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