SC Freiburg1 - 1VfL Wolfsburg
SC FreiburgWhy did AI enter 2 times at 70', 74' — and still finish +$5162?
Match Overview
SC Freiburg hosted VfL Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga, finishing 1-1. Goals: K. Koulierakis (55'), K. Koulierakis (56'), P. Lienhart (75'). OddsFlow deployed 13 trades across 2 waves, achieving 62% precision with a net result of +$5162.20 (ROI: +76.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to 0; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.14 to 2.59.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 70' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** VfL Wolfsburg leading 0-1 at 70'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting SC Freiburg +0.5 and Over 1.5 and VfL Wolfsburg. Average expected value was 22.3%, with a combined stake of $3557. The sharpest edge was on SC Freiburg +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 86.3% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 47.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 4 of 6 trades won, netting +$2062.20. ### Wave 2 — Minute 74' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** VfL Wolfsburg leading 0-1 at 74'. SC Freiburg made 5 substitutions. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under and Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Draw and VfL Wolfsburg 0. Average expected value was 24.3%, with a combined stake of $3200. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 57.5% probability versus the market's implied 27.8% — a 29.7 percentage point gap at odds of 3.6. **Result:** 4 of 7 trades won, netting +$3100.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 70'** — Asian Handicap SC Freiburg +0.5: AI saw 86.3% vs market's 38.5% (47.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 70'** — Asian Handicap SC Freiburg +0.5: AI saw 85.7% vs market's 38.5% (47.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 76'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 57.5% vs market's 27.8% (29.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 77'** — Asian Handicap VfL Wolfsburg 0: AI saw 76.9% vs market's 47.6% (29.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 77'** — Asian Handicap VfL Wolfsburg 0: AI saw 76.2% vs market's 47.6% (28.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/1L/1V, +$2588.30 (ROI: +78.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/1L/1V, +$2573.90 (ROI: +78.6%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 63%–37% in SC Freiburg's favor. SC Freiburg had 6 shots (1 on target) versus VfL Wolfsburg's 11 (4 on target). Expected goals: SC Freiburg 0.29 — VfL Wolfsburg 0.86. Corners: 0-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +76.4% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$2588.30.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 38.6% / 27.6% / 36.6% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 52.4% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 54.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overestimated the total goals, creating strong value on Under 2.75 Goals.
The Bundesliga clash between SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg concluded in a 1-1 draw, resulting in 2 total goals. The 1x2 market correctly identified a close contest, with SC Freiburg marginally favored (38.61% win probability) over VfL Wolfsburg (36.63%) and a draw at 27.55%. The Asian Handicap market, set at a 0 line, also saw SC Freiburg as a slight favorite to cover (52.36%). However, the most significant market inefficiency emerged in the Totals market. The closing Over/Under line was set at 2.75 goals, with the market leaning heavily towards the Over (54.05% implied probability). With only 2 goals scored, the Under 2.75 Goals bet proved to be a clear EV+ opportunity, highlighting a misjudgment by bookmakers on the total goal count for this fixture. This represents a strong Closing Line Value for those who backed the Under.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +76.4% ROI on 13 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$2588.30.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.