SC Freiburg4 - 1RB Leipzig
SC FreiburgWhy did AI enter 4 times at 10', 25', 35', 44' — and still finish $-853?
Match Overview
SC Freiburg hosted RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga, finishing 4-1. Goals: J. Beste (24'), I. Matanovic (26'), A. Ouedraogo (33'), M. Ginter (47'), D. Scherhant (75'). OddsFlow deployed 20 trades across 4 waves, achieving 20% precision with a net result of $-853.30 (ROI: -62.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.25 to 0; the Over/Under stayed at 3.25 with Over odds moving from 1.9 to 2.08.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting RB Leipzig 0. Average expected value was 28.6%, with a combined stake of $197. The sharpest edge was on RB Leipzig 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.6% probability versus the market's implied 46.7% — a 16.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.14. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-197.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** SC Freiburg leading 1-0 at 25'. J. Beste scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting RB Leipzig -1. Average expected value was 39.5%, with a combined stake of $105. The sharpest edge was on RB Leipzig -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 91.4% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 37.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-105.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** SC Freiburg leading 2-1 at 35'. A. Ouedraogo scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting RB Leipzig -1 and Under 5.5 and Under 5. Average expected value was 30.0%, with a combined stake of $641. The sharpest edge was on RB Leipzig -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 92.6% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 37.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** 3 of 9 trades won, netting $-215.30. ### Wave 4 — Minute 44' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** SC Freiburg leading 2-1 at 44'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 4.5 and SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig -1.5 and RB Leipzig -0.5. Average expected value was 30.6%, with a combined stake of $426. The sharpest edge was on RB Leipzig -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 94.4% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 53.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** 1 of 7 trades won, netting $-336.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap RB Leipzig -1.5: AI saw 94.4% vs market's 41.2% (53.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap RB Leipzig -1.5: AI saw 94.1% vs market's 41.2% (52.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap RB Leipzig -0.5: AI saw 78.9% vs market's 40.0% (38.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap RB Leipzig -1: AI saw 92.6% vs market's 54.8% (37.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap RB Leipzig -1: AI saw 92.4% vs market's 54.8% (37.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/1L/1V, $-72.10 (ROI: -34.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 2W/4L/1V, $-222.10 (ROI: -48.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 1W/4L/1V, $-257.10 (ROI: -64.4%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 4 trades, 0W/4L, $-302.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 41–59 in SC Freiburg's deficit. SC Freiburg had 11 shots (5 on target) versus RB Leipzig's 13 (6 on target). Expected goals: SC Freiburg 1.53 — RB Leipzig 0.99. Corners: 1-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -62.3% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at $-72.10.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 37.3% / 26.0% / 39.5% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 52.4% |
| Over / Under | 3.25 | 48.1% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued SC Freiburg's outright win potential and the likelihood of Over 3.25 goals.
SC Freiburg secured a dominant 4-1 victory over RB Leipzig, a result that starkly contradicted the closing market sentiment. The 1x2 market had RB Leipzig as marginal favorites with a 39.53% implied win probability, compared to Freiburg's 37.31%. This represents a clear underestimation of the home side's win potential. On the Asian Handicap (line 0), RB Leipzig was again slightly favored to cover (52.36%). However, Freiburg's decisive 3-goal winning margin comfortably covered this handicap, signaling a strong handicap line value signal on the home side. Furthermore, the Total Goals market (O/U 3.25) leaned significantly towards the Under (54.35% implied probability). The match ultimately produced 5 goals, unequivocally hitting the Over, which highlights a substantial market mispricing on the goal total.
A tough session at -62.3% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at $-72.10.
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